Are Black voters abandoning the Democratic party?

Are Black voters gravitating towards Donald Trump in meaningful numbers? Recent polls and articles, most notably the New York Times/Siena College poll, have set off alarm bells across the country with their survey results finding the former president garnering historic levels of support among African American voters. The short answer is no, there is little credible evidence showing a meaningful shift in the levels of support Black voters give to Democrats. The longer answer is that the current chorus of media concern illuminates serious shortcomings in polling methodology, political interpretation of polling data, and the responsible communication of information to the public in an ostensible democracy. Ground zero for the latest round of articles and commentary is the 6 October New York Times/Siena College polling that found Kamala Harris attracting support from just 78% of Black voters. By contrast, the 2020 exit polls found that four years ago the Biden-Harris ticket was backed by 87% of African Americans. These recent poll results have spawned lengthy articles, extended podcast discussions and widespread water cooler conversation about just what’s going on with Black voters. There are four fundamental problems with relying on this single poll’s findings. First, the poll’s findings are contradicted...