Are Black voters deserting Biden?

Despite current worries among Democrats about parts of their coalition’s less than enthusiastic support for President Biden’s re-election, history suggests those concerns may not be warranted. A recent in-depth Pew survey shows that about one in five African American men say they plan on voting for Donald Trump. Among Democrats, this has led to fears that Black voters in key cities in key states like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee will cost Biden those critical states. So how dangerous is this to Biden’s prospects? First, much of the polling that purports to show Black voters moving toward Trump is based on small sample sizes. The samples from subsegments in those polls are often so small that they have a very large margin of error.1 Second, they aren’t as recent as survey data, from Pew, that analyze the Black vote in greater depth. During this month’s discussion of young Black voters hosted by Brookings as part of their Race, Prosperity and Inclusion Initiative, Howard University political science professor Marcus Board, Jr. said that the normal Republican Black vote in presidential contests ranges from eight percent to 15%. Surveys back up his numbers. The Pew survey cited above, for example, indicates that Black...