Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland upends regional dynamics, risking strife across the Horn of Africa

A Somali soldier controls the crowd at a protest in the capital Mogadishu on Jan.3, 2024. AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh by Alemayehu Weldemariam, Indiana University The Horn of Africa ushered in the new year with news of a deal that would ensure that diplomatic relations in the region got off to a bumpy start in 2024. Ethiopia, it was announced on Jan. 1, had signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland, opening the door to an agreement to exchange a stake in flagship carrier Ethiopian Airlines for access to the Gulf of Aden. Such transactions of economic reciprocity are generally routine, as scholars of international relations and law like myself are aware. But this deal has another element. It intertwined sea access with Ethiopia’s formal recognition of Somaliland – and this has sparked quite a diplomatic stir. Ethiopia’s neighbor Somalia has demanded that the agreement be immediately retracted. In Somaliland itself, the deal has been greeted by protest and the defense minister’s resignation. Prior to the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had signaled his intention to gain Red Sea access for his landlocked country – a bid observers warned could have...