How Trump won Pennsylvania − and what the numbers from key counties show about the future of a pivotal swing state

People gather at McGillin’s Olde Ale House in Philadelphia as election results trickle in. Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images by Daniel J. Mallinson, Penn State Pennsylvania was for months considered the key swing state that would decide the 2024 election. Candidates, political parties and advocacy groups spent over US$1 billion courting the commonwealth’s small number of persuadable voters. We now know that former – and now future – President Donald Trump carried the state by the largest margin of the past three presidential elections. He won in 2016 by 0.72%, and Biden won in 2020 by 1.2%. Two days after Election Day, Trump has a 2% lead on Harris. I’m an associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg and a lifelong Pennsylvanian. Here’s how Trump won Pennsylvania, and what the votes cast in some of the state’s key counties tell us about the present and future of American politics. Important caveat: This is all based on numbers current as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024, and before the final tallies. Philadelphia The big story of the night for me was voter turnout in Philadelphia. Turnout in Pennsylvania’s largest city has long been viewed as critical for statewide...