Nikki Haley insists she can lose South Carolina and still get the nomination – but that would defy history

Nikki Haley greets supporters at a campaign stop in Aiken, S.C., on Feb. 5, 2024. Allison Joyce /AFP via Getty Images by Charles R. Hunt, Boise State University Former South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, a Republican, has lost the first four presidential primary contests, but has vowed to stay in the race for the foreseeable future. Haley seems to be counting on support from her home state of South Carolina to put her in a more competitive position against former President Donald J. Trump. Political science gives Haley a good reason to bank on doing well in South Carolina. For one thing, a candidate has naturally higher name recognition in their home state after having built a career and reputation there. Voters have gotten to know them and their record of achievement, and the candidate knows the culture of the state and its political pressure points. Shared ties in a state are also a meaningful identity that strengthens connections with voters based on trust. Being an out-of-towner, on the other hand, can make you seem out-of-touch. Just ask Dr. Oz, whose many gaffes during his 2022 campaign for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania highlighted his deep...