What early 2024 polls are revealing about voters of color and the GOP − and it’s not all about Donald Trump

Donald Trump speaks at the Black Conservative Federation Gala on Feb. 23, 2024. Sean Rayford/Getty Images by Daniel Martinez HoSang, Yale University and Micah English, Yale University By the end of winter 2024, the return of Donald Trump to the top of the GOP presidential ticket has revealed a surprising trend in the former president’s base of support: his increasing popularity among Black and Latino voters. Several polls suggest as many as 23% of Black voters and 46% of Latino voters could cast their ballot for Trump. If the polls are right, these numbers represent a far cry from the 6% of Black and 28% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2016 and the 8% of Black voters and 32% of Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2020. Given Trump’s long record of racist and xenophobic comments, the question, then, is why Trump’s support among voters of color has increased over the years. A ‘racial realignment’? Two explanations have emerged to explain Trump’s growth in support among voters of color. The first is based on the faulty assumption, made by some Democratic strategists that the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. electorate would automatically benefit Democratic...