Why Pennsylvania is the key to a Harris or Trump Electoral College victory

Police officers stand guard prior to Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Johnstown, Pa., on Aug. 30, 2024. Justin Merriman/Getty Images by Alauna Safarpour, Gettysburg College With less than two months until Election Day, Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state in each party’s plan to win the White House. The Pennsylvania focus is so great that the firm AdImpact, which tracks political advertising purchasing, reports that both the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris campaigns are spending more money on political advertising in Pennsylvania than in any other swing state this cycle. Kamala Harris flew to Pittsburgh on Sept. 5 and remained in the state through the Sept. 10 presidential debate – which took place in, you guessed it, Pennsylvania. The “Keystone State” – known as that since the 1800s due to Pennsylvania’s geographic, economic and political importance – has received a lot of love this election cycle. Both candidates appear to be treating Pennsylvania as their second home until Election Day. I am an assistant professor of political science at Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania, where I research and teach courses on American politics, public opinion and statistical methods. Why is Pennsylvania so pivotal for both campaigns? It’s the math In...