Abortion rights are on 10 state ballots in November − Democrats can’t count on this to win elections for them

Signs supporting the ‘Right to Abortion’ initiative are displayed during a rally on Sept. 5, 2024, in Bozeman, Montana. William Campbell/Getty Images by Benjamin Case, Arizona State University Ten states will vote on ballot initiatives on abortion this November: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada and South Dakota. Many political analysts and pundits view abortion as a partisan issue, fueling speculation that direct votes on abortion rights will boost Democrats’ chances up and down the ballot in November. Some Democratic strategists are hoping that turnout from the ballot initiatives will swing elections away from Republican candidates in key states such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida. But the effects that ballot measures have on which candidates win or lose is rarely so straightforward. For the past three years, my work as a political sociologist has been cataloging and studying ballot initiatives. Based on state-level data and recent trends, I believe it is highly likely that many of November’s ballot initiatives to protect abortion rights will pass. But that will not necessarily translate into broader Democratic candidate victories. An attendee wears a ‘vote for life’ shirt during a rally in Kentucky ahead of the abortion ballot vote in...