Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

Julia Nikhinson/AP/AAP by Adrian Beaumont, The University of Melbourne The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.7–46.2. In my previous US politics article on August 30, Harris led Trump by 48.8–45.0. Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2. By the election, Biden will be almost 82, Trump is now 78 and Harris will be 60. The next event that could potentially change the race is Tuesday’s debate between Harris and Trump. The June 27 debate between Biden and Trump eventually led to Biden’s withdrawal. With her current weakening poll numbers, it’s Harris that will need to perform best. The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner takes all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total). The most important swing state is Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral...