Trump’s Gains with Black Voters Could Decide 2024—and the Future of American Politics

President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Kamala Harris makes Harris – the first black and female vice president – the heavy favorite to become the new Democrat nominee. While conventional wisdom suggests that Harris would be able to reverse Biden’s dramatic polling collapse with black voters over the past four years, polling data indicates that a Harris-led ticket might actually continue former President Donald Trump’s surging popularity with that demographic. Throughout Biden’s presidency, Harris has remained consistently less popular with blacks than Biden. A 2021 poll showed that just 38 percent of blacks believe Harris cares “a lot” about black people – compared to 78 percent who said the same of Obama. According to a CBS News poll out this week, Trump is performing about the same against Harris as he was against Biden among black voters, winning about 21 percent of the demographic group. That’s bad news for Harris, as some polls have indicated that Trump’s support among black voters has more than doubled since 2020 (up from 9 percent) while Biden saw a stunning 12-point drop (81 percent to 69 percent). Among younger black voters (ages 18 to 49), Trump now enjoys...