Why Donald Trump won and Kamala Harris lost: An early analysis of the results

Trump won a personal victory in the 2024 election, sweeping all the swing states, improving his vote share just about everywhere, and—unlike his 2016 victory—garnering an outright majority of the popular vote. In addition, he led the Republican Party to a larger-than-expected Senate majority and, although many House races remain to be called, an expanded House majority may result as well. These gains are more than incremental; indeed, they may signal a new era in American politics. Political scientists and historians will spend years analyzing the causes and significance of this election. My focus is more immediate. Although the data are imperfect and incomplete, I will offer preliminary answers to two questions, which are really two sides of the same coin: Why did Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election, and why did Kamala Harris lose? Trump’s victory Donald Trump’s theory of the case was broadly correct. He and his campaign managers believed that it was possible to build on Republicans’ growing strength among white working-class voters to create a multi-ethnic working-class coalition. He was right: If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, he made strides among Latinos and African Americans, especially men. He increased his share of...