CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE LOWERS U.S. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

By: Bill King This week, the Congres- sional Budget Office (CBO) once again reduced its population projections for the U.S. for 2025-2055. Last year, in its 30-year forecast, the CBO had projected that the U.S. population would be about 383 million by 2054. This week’s projection lowered the 2055 projection to 372 million, about a 2.8% decrease. If the CBO is correct, the U.S. population will grow by about 22 million or 6% (350MM→372MM) over the next thirty years. It will be the slowest popula- tion growth in the country’s history. The lower projection is based on the fertility rate continuing at a very low level and a slow- down in immigration. The most recent data on the fertility rate (the average number of children born to each woman) was 1.62 in 2023. The CBO projects that it will slightly decline to 1.60 for the balance of the forecast period. However, it warns that it could go even lower. A fertility rate of about 2.1 is necessary to have a stable population. The CBO breaks down the fertility rate between women born in the U.S. and those who have emigrated here. I was surprised that there is relatively little difference,...